What I cannot create, I do not understand.|
Richard Feynman (1988)
Jamel (Java Agent-based Macro-Economic Laboratory) is an open source agent-based
framework dedicated to the modeling, the simulation and the analysis of complex monetary
economies. It is developped by Dr. P. Seppecher (CEPN, University of Paris 13, France), Dr. I. Salle (University of Amsterdam and Utrecht School of Economics, The Netherlands)
and Dr. H. Hagedorn (Business and Information Technology School, Berlin, Germany).
The latest version of Jamel (20160509) is available as a downloadable application.
It contains the companion baseline simulation of the paper "Is the market indeed a good teacher? Market selection, collective adaptation and financial instability" (2016).
The task group International Macroeconomics and Post-Keynesian Analyses of the CEPN is happy to announce the third workshop:
Modeling and Analysis of Complex Monetary Economies
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2016
UNIVERSITÉ PARIS 13 - CAMPUS DE VILLETANEUSE
AMPHI A (INSTITUT GALILÉE)
Must-Read on Brad DeLong's blog, available at <HAL-01314335>:
Is the market really a good teacher?
Market selection, collective adaptation
and financial instability
Pascal Seppecher, Isabelle Salle, Dany Lang
28th April 2016
This paper proposes to model market mechanisms as a collective
learning process for firms in a complex adaptive system, namely
Jamel, an agent-based, stock-flow consistent macroeconomic
model. Inspired by Alchian's (1950) "blanketing shotgun process"
idea, our learning model is an ever-adapting process that puts a
significant weight on exploration vis-à-vis exploitation.
We show that decentralized market selection allows firms to
collectively adapt their overall debt strategies to the changes in
the macroeconomic environment so that the system sustains itself,
but at the cost of recurrent deep downturns.
We conclude that, in complex evolving economies, market processes do
not lead to the selection of optimal behaviors, as the
characterization of successful behaviors itself constantly evolves
as a result of the market conditions that these behaviors contribute
to shape. Heterogeneity in behavior remains essential to adaptation
in such an ever-changing environment. We come to an evolutionary
characterization of a crisis, as the point where the evolution of
the macroeconomic system becomes faster than the adaptation
capabilities of the agents that populate it, and the so far selected
performing behaviors suddenly cease to be, and become instead
Keywords: Evolutionary economics, Learning, Firms' adaptation, Business cycles.
JEL classification codes: B52, C63, D83, E32.
Last updated: 2016-12-04